Sun's rest means Earth's cooling

NASA: Quiet Sun Means Dramatic Cooling Of Earth's Upper Atmosphere

Published on 12-18-2009 Email To Friend Print Version


New measurements from a NASA satellite show a dramatic cooling in the upper atmosphere that correlates with the declining phase of the current solar cycle. For the first time, researchers can show a timely link between the Sun and the climate of Earth's thermosphere, the region above 100 km, an essential step in making accurate predictions of climate change in the high atmosphere.

Scientists from NASA's Langley Research Center and Hampton University in Hampton, Va., and the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., will present these results at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco from Dec. 14 to 18.

Earth's thermosphere and mesosphere have been the least explored regions of the atmosphere. The NASA Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) mission was developed to explore the Earth's atmosphere above 60 km altitude and was launched in December 2001. One of four instruments on the TIMED mission, the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument, was specifically designed to measure the energy budget of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The SABER dataset now covers eight years of data and has already provided some basic insight into the heat budget of the thermosphere on a variety of timescales.

The extent of current solar minimum conditions has created a unique situation for recent SABER datasets. The end of solar cycle 23 has offered an opportunity to study the radiative cooling in the thermosphere under exceptionally quiescent conditions.

"The Sun is in a very unusual period," said Marty Mlynczak, SABER associate principal investigator and senior research scientist at NASA Langley. "The Earth's thermosphere is responding remarkably -- up to an order of magnitude decrease in infrared emission/radiative cooling by some molecules."

The TIMED measurements show a decrease in the amount of ultraviolet radiation emitted by the Sun. In addition, the amount of infrared radiation emitted from the upper atmosphere by nitric oxide molecules has decreased by nearly a factor of 10 since early 2002. These observations imply that the upper atmosphere has cooled substantially since then. The research team expects the atmosphere to heat up again as solar activity starts to pick up in the next year.

While this warming has no implications for climate change in the troposphere, a fundamental prediction of climate change theory is that the upper atmosphere will cool in response to increasing carbon dioxide. As the atmosphere cools the density will increase, which ultimately may impact satellite operations through increased drag over time.

The SABER dataset is the first global, long-term, and continuous record of the Nitric oxide (NO) and Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the thermosphere.

"We suggest that the dataset of radiative cooling of the thermosphere by NO and CO2 constitutes a first climate data record for the thermosphere," says Mlynczak.

The TIMED data provide a fundamental climate data record for validation of upper atmosphere climate models which is an essential step in making accurate predictions of climate change in the high atmosphere. SABER provides the first long-term measurements of natural variability in key terms of the upper atmosphere climate. As the TIMED mission continues, these data derived from SABER will become important in assessing long term changes due to the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

TIMED is the first mission in the Solar Terrestrial Probes Program within the Heliophysics Division in NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington.

For more information:

http://stp.gsfc.nasa.gov/missions/timed/timed.htm

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Glacier is advancing

Warming? - AK's Hubbard Glacier Advancing 7 Ft Per Day!

From Robert Felix
IceAgeNow.com
5-14-9


This past week, climatologist Cliff Harris of the Coeur d'Alene Press received an astounding report from Yakutat, Alaska, concerning the Hubbard Glacier. The glacier is advancing toward Gilbert Point near Yakutat at the astonishing rate of two meters (seven feet) per day!

"The Army Corp of Engineers special Web site for the Hubbard Glacier - www.glacierresearch.com - contains some absolutely amazing photos of the advancing glacier," says Harris. "One can easily see the expanding wall of ice. It's HUGE!" (The website may tell you that viewing is restricted, but if you keep clicking on stuff you'll find the secret.)

"Even the dedicated global warmists need to know the truth about the recent extended period of global cooling caused by our 'SILENT SUN,' Harris continues.

'When' and 'if' the Hubbard Glacier eventually closes the Russell Fjord, the fjord will fill with fresh water, becoming a 30-mile-long lake creating a new 40,000-cubic-feet-per-second river system. This will have an extremely 'negative' economic impact on Yakutat and the surrounding regions. It's possible that at the shocking rate of seven feet per day in its advancement, the Hubbard Glacier could close the fjord by later this summer, or even prior to that time, if the current rate of advancement speeds up, say to perhaps 10 or 12 feet per day.

"Not only has our 'SILENT SUN,' almost completely devoid of sunspots, been at least partially responsible for the expanding glaciers in Alaska, Norway and elsewhere, but 'Ole Sol' is likewise, in my not-so-humble climatological opinion, to blame for our recent colder, snowier and wetter spring seasons in North Idaho and the surrounding Inland Empire.

"Heavier snows -- up to six inches or more above 5,000 feet -- have accumulated in the nearby mountains on a daily basis since early May. It may be mid June or later before Glacier Park's 'Going-to-the-Sun Highway' opens. (Next week, we'll take a look at what's happening to the glaciers in the park. Are they also beginning to expand? Find out the truth in just seven days.)"

http://www.iceagenow.com/Alaskas_Hubbard_G...eet_per_day.htm

Ice Age or Global warming ?!

Ice Age or global warming?

It looks more like an Ice Age than global warming.

February 24th, 2009
http://blogs.reuters.com/environment/2009/...age-2/#comments


There is so much snow in Oslo, where I live, that the city authorities are resorting to dumping truckloads of it in the sea because the usual storage sites on land are full.

That is angering environmentalists who say the snow is far too dirty – scraped up from polluted roads — to be added to the fjord. The story even made it to the front page of the local paper (’Dumpes i sjøen’: ‘Dumped in the sea’).

In many places around the capital there’s about a metre of snow, the most since 2006 when it was last dumped in the sea. Extra snow usually gets trucked to sites on land, where most of the polluted dirt is left after the thaw. Those stores are now full — in some the snow isn’t expected to melt before September.

But are these mountains of snow a sign that global warming isn’t happening?

Unfortunately, more snow might fit projections by the U.N. Climate Panel, which says that northern Europe is likely to get wetter and the south drier as temperatures rise this century.

“By the 2070s, hydropower potential for the whole of Europe is expected to decline by 6 percent, with strong regional variations from a 20 to 50 percent decrease in the Mediterranean region to a 15 to 30 increase in northern and eastern Europe.” it said in a 2007 report (page 60 of this link).

So people in northern Europe may have to buy more snow shovels than parasols to cope with global warming?

How about where you live?

It's the Sun,...

It’s the Sun, stupid!

By Willie Soon, solar and climate scientist
______________

.
5 Mar 09 – (Excerpts) "The amount and distribution of solar energy that we receive varies as the Earth revolves around the Sun and also in response to changes in the Sun’s activity. Scientists have now been studying solar influences on climate for 5000 years.

"Chinese imperial astronomers kept detailed sunspot records. They noticed that more sunspots meant warmer weather on Earth. In 1801, the celebrated astronomer William Herschel noticed that when there were few spots, the price of wheat soared – because, he surmised, less “light and heat” from the Sun resulted in reduced harvests.

The price of wheat soared! As I've been sayingall along, I fear that
we'll be fighting in the streets for food long before we're covered by ice.

"Between 1645 and 1715, sunspots were very rare and temperatures were low. Then sunspot frequency grew until, between 1930 and 2000, the Sun was more active than at almost any time in the last 10,000 years. The oceans can cause up to several decades of delay before air temperatures respond fully to this solar “Grand Maximum.” Now that the Sun is becoming less active again, global temperatures have fallen for seven years.

More active than at almost any time in the last 10,000 years!

"We have known for nearly 80 years that small changes in solar activity can cause large climatic changes. Where sunlight falls, for how long, and with what effect, determine how climate will respond.

"The most recent scientific evidence shows that even small changes in solar radiation have a strong effect on Earth’s temperature and climate.

"In 2005, I demonstrated a surprisingly strong correlation between solar radiation and temperatures in the Arctic over the past 130 years. Since then, I have demonstrated similar correlations in all the regions surrounding the Arctic, including the US mainland and China.

"The close relationships between the abrupt ups and downs of solar activity and of temperature that I have identified occur locally in coastal Greenland; regionally in the Arctic Pacific and north Atlantic; and hemispherically for the whole circum-Arctic, suggesting that changes in solar activity drive Arctic and perhaps even global climate.

"There is no such match between the steady rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the often dramatic ups and downs of surface temperatures in and around the Arctic.

"I recently discovered direct evidence that changes in solar activity have influenced what has been called the “conveyor-belt” circulation of the great Atlantic Ocean currents over the past 240 years. For instance, solar-driven changes in temperature, and in the volume of freshwater output from the Arctic, cause variations in sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic 5-20 years later.

"These previously undocumented results have been published in the journal Physical Geography. They make it difficult to maintain that changes in solar activity play an insignificant role in climate change, especially over the Arctic.

"The evidence in my paper is consistent with the hypothesis that the Sun causes climatic change in the Arctic.

"It invalidates the hypothesis that CO2 is a major cause of observed climate change – and raises serious questions about the wisdom of imposing cap-and-trade or other policies that would cripple energy production and economic activity, in the name of “preventing catastrophic climate change.”

"Bill Clinton used to sum up politics by saying, “It’s the economy, stupid!” Now we can fairly sum up climate change by saying, “It’s the Sun, stupid!”

Willie Soon is a solar and climate scientist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center
for Astrophysics. This is his personal opinion based upon 18 years of scientific research.
See entire paper:
http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/Wi..._Sun_Stupid.pdf
Thanks to Mike Kidd and Hans Schreuder for this link

More...about climate change

The Barbarian may indeed be at the gate, but he is coming with ice, not fire

By Joe Bastardi, Senior Meteorologist at accuweather.com

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10 Feb 09 – Excerpts: “The length of the solar cycle continues to grow. Within 20 years, the climate of Scotland can be into London and Scotland more like Scandinavia.

The solar max is in 5 years, yet there has been no rebound from the min yet. As this cycle grows longer, it is becoming more apparent the Russian scientists are right about their solar theories as they were predicting it to happen as we see it. They also said because of this we will be in a mini ice age, much like back in the 1700s by around 2030. The U.K. energy czar, refusing to look at history, probably has no clue about this, nor would he even listen to the idea that solar cycles have affects on climate, something the commoner must know since its warmer when the sun is up than when it's down. (See related story about energy czar wanting to limit holiday travel.)

(Bastardi continues, saying that this cycle has an effect of increasing
the speed of the earth’s rotation. “Chances are this creates an increased
stress on the earth, meaning more volcanic activity,” says Bastardi.)

“What is setting up here is the threat of the triple crown of cooling 1) Natural cyclical reversal 2) Solar radiation reduction 3) Increased volcanic activity.

“The Barbarian may indeed be at the gate, but he is coming with ice, not fire.

"In the meantime, the cold Euro winter continues, unforecast by any of the U.K. models...

"Here is the conclusion of (a Danish Study on the matter): 70-90 year oscillations in global mean temperature are correlated with corresponding oscillations in solar activity. Whereas the solar influence is obvious in the data from the last four centuries, signatures of human activity are not yet distinguishable in the observations. (See http://www.tmgnow.com/repository/solar/lassen1.html)

"Of course confronting people with such facts only make them mad, rather than have them examine their own ideas. But at least you can read it.

Please, read Bastardi’s entire article, originally entitled “The U.K
needs a glacier to stop this.” I think you'll enjoy his humor.
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-e...ner=accuweather

World is getting colder

BELLAMY/DUCHAMP: World is getting colder

It's the sun, not CO2, that's to blame

David J. Bellamy and Mark Duchamp
Friday, January 30, 2009
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/j...getting-colder/


After the wet and cold centuries of the Little Ice Age (around 1550-1850 A.D.), the world's climate recuperated some warmth, but did not replicate the balmy period known as the Middle Age Warm Period (around 800-1300 A.D.), when the margins of Greenland were green and England had vineyards.

Climate began to cool again after World War II, for about 30 years. This is undisputed. The cooling occurred at a time when emissions of C02 were rising sharply from the reconstruction effort and from unprecedented development. It is important to realize that.

By 1978 it had started to warm again, to everybody's relief. But two decades later, after the temperature peaked in 1998 under the influence of El Nino, climate stopped warming for eight years; and in 2007 entered a cooling phase marked by lower solar radiation and a reversal of the cycles of warm ocean temperature in the Atlantic and the Pacific. And here again, it is important to note that this new cooling period is occurring concurrently with an acceleration in CO2 emissions, caused by the emergence of two industrial giants: China and India.

To anyone analyzing this data with common sense, it is obvious that factors other than CO2 emissions are ruling the climate. And the same applies to other periods of the planet's history. Al Gore, in his famous movie "The Inconvenient Truth," had simply omitted to say that for the past 420,000 years that he cited as an example, rises in CO2 levels in the atmosphere always followed increases in global temperature by at least 800 years. It means that CO2 can't possibly be the cause of the warming cycles.

So, if it's not CO2, what is it that makes the world's temperature periodically rise and fall? The obvious answer is the sun, and sea currents in a subsidiary manner.

The tilt of Earth, the shape of Earth's orbit (distance to the sun), and Earth's "wobble" as it turns around the sun are all important factors in the cyclical recurrence of ice ages and interglacial periods. It has been observed that ice ages last about 100,000 years, and warm interglacials only 12,000. And within these warm periods, variations in solar activity cause shorter periods of less-pronounced warming and cooling.

There is no way to know for sure if the present cooling period will last several decades or 100,000 years. Russian scientists have just warned that a fully-blown ice age is not to be ruled out, as about 12,000 years have elapsed since the end of the last one.

Entering a new ice age would be a disaster for humanity: billions of people could die from lack of food, from the cold, and from the collapse of the world economy, social strife, war, etc.

And if what's ahead of us is only a little ice age, the consequences would still be pretty dire. World food reserves are already low, and we can barely feed the current population of the planet. Surfaces of arable land used for bio-fuels and biomass are increasing. Cool and wet summers would cause crop failures as they did in the Little Ice Age (as a result, starving Parisians had taken to the streets, soon sending their king to the guillotine). Winter frost would also bring its share of misery, destroying fruits and vegetables on a large scale.

Let's just hope we'll only have a few years of cooling, and that another warming period will follow. But it may be wishful thinking. In any case, there will be hardship during the cold cycle, whatever its length.

As President Obama takes office, and as the European Union is about to waste one trillion euros to de-carbonize the economy (in a bid to stop nonexistent man-made global warming) they would be well-advised to perform a reality check on what's currently happening to the climate. Talking to independent scientists about the positive properties of CO2 (plant food that enhances crops) would also be a good idea.

If they don't, we may be in for mass starvation. And let's not forget that the world population is increasing by about 78 million every year.

David J. Bellamy is a professor at three British universities and an officer in several conservation organizations. Mark Duchamp, a retired businessman, has investigated global- warming theory and written more than 100 articles.

What's happening to the Sun ?

What's Happening to the Sun?

Could its unusual behavior herald a new ice age?

By Laurie J. Schmidt Posted 01.27.2009 at 10:26 am 12 Comments
http://www.popsci.com/node/31506


For about 50 years from roughly 1650 to 1700, the Sun took a break from its typical sunspot activity. That phase of solar rest coincided with what we now refer to as "The Little Ice Age" -- a period of cooling on the Earth that resulted in bitterly cold winters, particularly in Europe and North America. Scientists attribute the Little Ice Age to two main causes: increased volcanic activity and reduced solar activity.

Could it happen again? And are we headed there now?

The term "solar activity" refers collectively to sunspots, solar flares, and solar eruptions. Together, these phenomena make up the "space weather" that alters interactions between Earth and its atmosphere, causing potential disruptions to satellites, communications systems, and power grids. Varying levels of solar activity also cause significant changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, which can affect the weather and climate on Earth.

Solar cycles, which last an average of 11 years, are driven by the number, size, and placement of sunspots -- cooler, darker spots on the Sun's surface where intense magnetic activity occurs -- on the Sun's surface. Each cycle is marked by a solar minimum and a solar maximum, meaning the approximate time in the cycle when the least and greatest amounts of solar activity occurred. During the solar minimum, sunspot activity diminishes, and during the maximum greater numbers of sunspots appear. As one cycle winds down and another begins, sunspots from both cycles can be seen simultaneously.

By late 2007, Solar Cycle 23, which began in 1996, was decaying to low activity levels, and NOAA forecasters predicted that Solar Cycle 24 would begin in March 2008, plus or minus six months. Indeed, the new cycle's first sunspot appeared in January 2008 -- its high-latitude location a clear sign that it was part of the new solar cycle. But in the months that followed, there was a marked decrease in sunspot activity, spawning questions about whether we could be headed into another little ice age.

"Everything we're seeing now we've seen the Sun do before, and it still went on to produce a normal solar cycle," said Doug Biesecker, physicist at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado.

After a nine-month lull in solar activity, a batch of five sunspots appeared beginning on October 31, 2008, four of which belonged to the new cycle. And according to Biesecker, so far this year, two sunspots appeared for a total of four days -- one was a Cycle 23 sunspot and one a Cycle 24. "You always get lots of days with no sunspots, and at solar minimum you almost always see sunspots from the new cycle at the same time you're still seeing sunspots from the old cycle. This overlap phase can be just a few months, but it can be as long as two years," he said.

Biesecker says that the longer Cycle 23 drags out, the more we will hear about how the Sun is going quiet. "If you go back to the early 1950s, that solar minimum was very similar to the one we're going through right now," he said. "But it was followed by the largest solar cycle on record. So just because the Sun is quieter than it's been in awhile doesn't really tell us where it's going to be in the future."

Tom Woods, Associate Director for Technical Divisions at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP), concurs. "Typically during a solar minimum you will have one or two months with no sunspots, so what we saw in 2008 is typical of most solar cycles," he said.

But Woods points out that there are other indications, aside from sunspot activity, that Cycle 24 may be different. First, the magnetic field at the Sun's poles is about 40 percent lower than it normally is at solar minimum. "If you look at the last time the polar field was that weak, it goes back to the early 1800s during a time called the Dalton Minimum, when we had a low solar activity cycle," he said. The Dalton Minimum lasted from about 1790 to 1830 and coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures.

In addition, Woods says that the solar wind speed is currently lower than normal. But does this mean there will be a big change in the solar cycle? "We don't really know, but we're waiting and watching," he said. "This new cycle could be anomalously low or it could be normal."

Although Cycle 23's 12-year length (it began in 1996) isn't outside the normal range, it might help explain why Cycle 24's activity level is low. Biesecker points out that, based on the previous 22 solar cycles, researchers now know that the longer the previous cycle, the lower the next cycle will be in terms of activity. "So we're definitely edging into that territory now," he said.

According to Woods, even a smaller solar cycle could induce some cooling on Earth. "Not enough to offset the greenhouse gas global warming effect," he said, "but enough to potentially slow it down for a few years." The solar cycle's effect on global temperatures is only about 1/10 of a degree, whereas the greenhouse effect over the past 30 years has been about a full one degree change, Woods said.

Even so, Woods says it's unlikely that we're headed into a "Little Ice Age" scenario. "It's probably unlikely that we will go into a phase where we don't have any sunspot activity for 50 years. We can't eliminate the possibility, but I would say the probability is not high," he said.

"For that to happen, we would have to see no pickup in the Cycle 24 sunspots, but we're seeing a reasonable amount of new activity," said Biesecker. "There is no model we're aware of that can predict that we're going into an ice age -- it's an actual physical limitation of our current understanding."

History od the Earth climate change

Tracking Down Abrupt Climate Changes: Rapid Natural Cooling Occurred 12,700 Years Ago

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/...80801152137.htm


ScienceDaily (Aug. 4, 2008) — Researchers in Germany, Switzerland, and the United States have shown, for the first time, that an extremely fast climate change occurred in Western Europe. This took place long before human-made changes in the atmosphere, and is causatively associated with a sudden change in the wind systems.

The research, which appears in the journal Nature Geoscience, was conducted by geoscientists Achim Brauer, Peter Dulski and Jörg Negendank (emeritus Professor) from the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Gerald Haug from the DFG-Leibniz Center for Surface Processes and Climate Studies at the University of Potsdam and the ETH in Zurich, and Daniel Sigman from Princeton University.

The proof of an extreme cooling within a short number of years 12,700 years ago was attained in sediments of the volcanic lake Meerfelder Maar in the Eifel region of Germany. The seasonally layered deposits allow to precisely determine the rate of climate change. With a novel combination of microscopic research studies and modern geochemical scanner procedures, the scientists were able to successfully reconstruct the climatic conditions even for individual seasons. In particular, the changes in the wind force and direction during the winter half-year caused the climate to topple over into a completely different mode within one year after a short instable phase of a few decades.

Up to now, it was assumed that the attenuation of the Gulf Stream alone was responsible for the strong cooling in Western Europe.

The examined lake deposits show, however, that the atmospheric circulation, probably in connection with the spreading of sea-ice, most likely played a very important role. At the same time, these new results show that the climate system is still not well understood, and that especially the mechanisms of short-term change and the time of occurrence still hold many puzzles. Micro-layered lake deposits represent particularly suitable geological archives, with which scientists want to track down climate change.

Scientists from the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam – German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) and other institutions are in search of such archives worldwide, with the hope of obtaining area-wide information on the dynamics of climate and possible regional variations in the future.

Another climate change opinion/challenge

Last Ice Age happened in less than year say scientists

2 Aug 2008
http://news.scotsman.com/scitech/Last-Ice-...d-in.4351045.jp
By angus howarth


THE last ice age 13,000 years ago took hold in just one year, more than ten times quicker than previously believed, scientists have warned.

Rather than a gradual cooling over a decade, the ice age plunged Europe into the deep freeze, German Research Centre for Geosciences at Potsdam said.

Cold, stormy conditions caused by an abrupt shift in atmospheric circulation froze the continent almost instantly during the Younger Dryas less than 13,000 years ago – a very recent period on a geological scale.

The new findings will add to fears of a serious risk of this happening again in the UK and western Europe – and soon.

Dr Achim Brauer, of the GFZ (GeoForschungs Zentrum) German Research Centre for Geosciences at Potsdam, and colleagues analysed annual layers of sediments, called "varves", from a German crater lake.

Each varve records a single year, allowing annual climate records from the region to be reconstructed.

Global cooling-Australian astronomers study

Australian Researchers Warn of Global Cooling

Michael Asher (Blog) - July 1, 2008 11:09 AM
http://www.dailytech.com/Australian+Astron...rticle12250.htm


A 2005 prediction of solar activity. The sunspot number should now stand close to 100, instead it is zero."Spin-orbit coupling" to blame; effects could last decades.

A new paper published by the Astronomical Society of Australia is warning of upcoming global cooling due to lessened solar activity. The study, written by three Australian researchers, has identified what is known as a "spin-orbit coupling" affecting the rotation rate of the sun. That rotation, in turn, is linked to the intensity of the solar cycle and climate changes here on Earth.
The study's lead author, Ian Wilson, explains further, "[The paper] supports the contention that the level of activity on the Sun will significantly diminish sometime in the next decade and remain low for about 20 - 30 years."

According to Wilson, the result is a strong, rapid pulse of global cooling, "On each occasion that the Sun has done this in the past the World’s mean temperature has dropped by ~ 1 - 2 C."

A 2 C drop would be twice as large as all the warming the earth has experienced since the start of the industrial era, and would be significant enough to impact global agriculture output.

Earlier this year, astronomers from around the world noted solar activity was suspiciously low; some began predicting global cooling at that time. Since then, activity has remained far below average, with it now being over two months since a single sunspot has appeared on the surface of the sun.

In May, a team of German climatologists published research stating that, due to "natural effects", global warming would halt for up to 15 years.

The new paper appears in the June issue of PASA, Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia.